Description
Unit 1: Introduction to Strategic Foresight in Diplomacy
Provides foundations for long-term thinking in global affairs.
Learning Objectives:
– Define strategic foresight and its relevance to diplomacy.
– Identify tools for analyzing political, economic, and technological change.
Content: Provides foundations for long-term thinking in global affairs.
Activity: Develop a foresight glossary and scanning matrix.
Assessment: Glossary and matrix submission rubric.
Unit 2: Horizon Scanning and Emerging Trends
Teaches how to identify, track, and interpret weak signals.
Learning Objectives:
– Identify tools for analyzing political, economic, and technological change.
– Apply scenario planning techniques to foreign policy challenges.
Content: Teaches how to identify, track, and interpret weak signals.
Activity: Conduct a horizon scan across four trend categories.
Assessment: Scan results report and insight memo.
Unit 3: Scenario Planning for Diplomatic Strategy
Explores techniques for building plausible futures and policy options.
Learning Objectives:
– Apply scenario planning techniques to foreign policy challenges.
– Use horizon scanning to identify emerging global risks.
Content: Explores techniques for building plausible futures and policy options.
Activity: Create three future scenarios for a global issue.
Assessment: Scenario paper scoring guide.
Unit 4: Fundamentals of Geopolitical and Intelligence Analysis
Covers basic methods for gathering and interpreting intelligence.
Learning Objectives:
– Use horizon scanning to identify emerging global risks.
– Conduct basic geopolitical and intelligence analysis.
Content: Covers basic methods for gathering and interpreting intelligence.
Activity: Write a geopolitical snapshot using intel sources.
Assessment: Snapshot evaluation rubric and feedback.
Unit 5: Designing Early Warning Systems
Outlines components of diplomatic alert and monitoring systems.
Learning Objectives:
– Conduct basic geopolitical and intelligence analysis.
– Design early warning systems for diplomatic strategy.
Content: Outlines components of diplomatic alert and monitoring systems.
Activity: Design a draft early warning indicator system.
Assessment: Indicator system diagram and checklist.
Unit 6: Data-Driven Diplomacy and Predictive Analytics
Applies quantitative and qualitative forecasting tools.
Learning Objectives:
– Design early warning systems for diplomatic strategy.
– Integrate data and expert insight into forecasting efforts.
Content: Applies quantitative and qualitative forecasting tools.
Activity: Build a simple data model to project trend impact.
Assessment: Model accuracy and interpretation report.
Unit 7: Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning
Prepares students to evaluate uncertainty and devise flexible strategies.
Learning Objectives:
– Integrate data and expert insight into forecasting efforts.
– Communicate future scenarios and briefings effectively.
Content: Prepares students to evaluate uncertainty and devise flexible strategies.
Activity: Run a tabletop simulation of regional instability.
Assessment: Simulation performance rubric.
Unit 8: Communicating Foresight: Briefings and Narratives
Focuses on writing and delivering compelling foresight briefings.
Learning Objectives:
– Communicate future scenarios and briefings effectively.
– Evaluate implications of uncertainty and complexity in diplomacy.
Content: Focuses on writing and delivering compelling foresight briefings.
Activity: Deliver a foresight briefing to a diplomatic audience.
Assessment: Briefing delivery and communication checklist.
Unit 9: Simulation: Crisis Foresight and Strategy Adjustment
Engages learners in adjusting plans based on shifting global dynamics.
Learning Objectives:
– Evaluate implications of uncertainty and complexity in diplomacy.
– Develop a strategic foresight plan for diplomatic missions.
Content: Engages learners in adjusting plans based on shifting global dynamics.
Activity: Respond to a scenario twist in live simulation.
Assessment: Response agility and scenario debrief.
Unit 10: Capstone: Diplomatic Strategic Foresight Plan
Students synthesize all tools into a real-world application for a country or region.
Learning Objectives:
– Develop a strategic foresight plan for diplomatic missions.
– Define strategic foresight and its relevance to diplomacy.
Content: Students synthesize all tools into a real-world application for a country or region.
Activity: Present a complete strategic foresight roadmap.
Assessment: Capstone foresight strategy and oral defense.
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