Description
Unit 1: Introduction to Economic Forecasting in Diplomacy
Introduces forecasting as a diplomatic decision-making tool.
Learning Objectives:
– Define economic forecasting and its value in foreign policy planning.
– Interpret key economic indicators relevant to global affairs.
Content: Introduces forecasting as a diplomatic decision-making tool.
Activity: Create a country economic forecast profile.
Assessment: Profile submission and forecasting rationale.
Unit 2: Key Indicators and Macroeconomic Interpretation
Covers inflation, interest, growth, labor, and external sector data.
Learning Objectives:
– Interpret key economic indicators relevant to global affairs.
– Assess short- and long-term trends in macroeconomic data.
Content: Covers inflation, interest, growth, labor, and external sector data.
Activity: Interpret and explain trends in regional economic data.
Assessment: Data interpretation rubric and oral summary.
Unit 3: Forecasting Models and Scenario Building
Trains basic techniques for extrapolation and uncertainty modeling.
Learning Objectives:
– Assess short- and long-term trends in macroeconomic data.
– Analyze country and regional economic risks.
Content: Trains basic techniques for extrapolation and uncertainty modeling.
Activity: Build and present two future economic scenarios.
Assessment: Scenario presentation and modeling accuracy.
Unit 4: Country Risk Assessment and Regional Dynamics
Focuses on assessing structural vulnerabilities and economic exposure.
Learning Objectives:
– Analyze country and regional economic risks.
– Use scenario analysis for planning under uncertainty.
Content: Focuses on assessing structural vulnerabilities and economic exposure.
Activity: Score a country on political and economic risk.
Assessment: Risk scorecard and justification report.
Unit 5: Communicating Economic Insights to Policymakers
Teaches concise, accessible policy messaging from economic trends.
Learning Objectives:
– Use scenario analysis for planning under uncertainty.
– Communicate forecasts in policy briefs and diplomatic messaging.
Content: Teaches concise, accessible policy messaging from economic trends.
Activity: Write an economic forecast briefing for a foreign minister.
Assessment: Briefing grading guide and feedback.
Unit 6: Forecasting and Trade, Investment, and Aid Strategy
Links forecasts to economic diplomacy and resource planning.
Learning Objectives:
– Communicate forecasts in policy briefs and diplomatic messaging.
– Evaluate the reliability and limitations of economic projections.
Content: Links forecasts to economic diplomacy and resource planning.
Activity: Design an aid allocation plan using forecast projections.
Assessment: Aid plan evaluation rubric.
Unit 7: Data Sources, Reliability, and Visualization Tools
Explores real-time sources, dashboards, and analytic tools.
Learning Objectives:
– Evaluate the reliability and limitations of economic projections.
– Integrate forecasts into multilateral or bilateral strategic planning.
Content: Explores real-time sources, dashboards, and analytic tools.
Activity: Develop a real-time dashboard for policy tracking.
Assessment: Dashboard rubric and visualization checklist.
Unit 8: Forecasting for Crisis Management and Opportunity Mapping
Covers forecasting application to conflict, crisis, and investment.
Learning Objectives:
– Integrate forecasts into multilateral or bilateral strategic planning.
– Design economic dashboards for diplomatic missions.
Content: Covers forecasting application to conflict, crisis, and investment.
Activity: Run a conflict risk alert scenario based on economic stress.
Assessment: Alert scenario analysis and response memo.
Unit 9: Simulation: Advising Leaders with Forecast Data
Simulates real-time policy advising with incomplete forecasts.
Learning Objectives:
– Design economic dashboards for diplomatic missions.
– Create a forecasting-informed policy strategy for a global issue.
Content: Simulates real-time policy advising with incomplete forecasts.
Activity: Advise a policy panel using economic trend data.
Assessment: Simulation participation and communication score.
Unit 10: Capstone: Forecast-Driven Foreign Policy Strategy
Students present a strategy grounded in forecast-based evidence.
Learning Objectives:
– Create a forecasting-informed policy strategy for a global issue.
– Define economic forecasting and its value in foreign policy planning.
Content: Students present a strategy grounded in forecast-based evidence.
Activity: Present a comprehensive strategy based on forecast analysis.
Assessment: Capstone strategy document and policy impact defense.
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