Description
Unit 1: Foundations of Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning
Introduces foresight concepts and scenario planning methodology.
Learning Objectives:
– Understand scenario planning and its application in diplomacy.
– Identify driving forces shaping global change and uncertainty.
Content: Introduces foresight concepts and scenario planning methodology.
Activity: Conduct a horizon scan and trend impact assessment.
Assessment: Horizon scan scoring and trend brief.
Unit 2: Identifying Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties
Guides research into trends and uncertainties in global affairs.
Learning Objectives:
– Identify driving forces shaping global change and uncertainty.
– Construct plausible and diverse future scenarios.
Content: Guides research into trends and uncertainties in global affairs.
Activity: Group brainstorm of driving forces and uncertainties.
Assessment: Uncertainty matrix and rationale write-up.
Unit 3: Building Scenarios Using the Axes Method
Teaches structured methods for developing four divergent futures.
Learning Objectives:
– Construct plausible and diverse future scenarios.
– Apply the ‘axes of uncertainty’ and ‘four-quadrant’ method.
Content: Teaches structured methods for developing four divergent futures.
Activity: Develop four scenario outlines using cross-axis technique.
Assessment: Scenario design rubric and peer feedback.
Unit 4: Narrative Development and Storytelling in Scenarios
Covers storytelling tools to build compelling, relevant narratives.
Learning Objectives:
– Apply the ‘axes of uncertainty’ and ‘four-quadrant’ method.
– Assess risks, opportunities, and implications of alternative futures.
Content: Covers storytelling tools to build compelling, relevant narratives.
Activity: Write a complete narrative for one assigned future world.
Assessment: Narrative writing assessment and clarity review.
Unit 5: Implications Mapping and Strategy Generation
Explores how to translate insights into adaptive strategy.
Learning Objectives:
– Assess risks, opportunities, and implications of alternative futures.
– Develop strategy options based on scenario narratives.
Content: Explores how to translate insights into adaptive strategy.
Activity: Map scenario implications for diplomacy and security.
Assessment: Implications map and reflection memo.
Unit 6: Stakeholder Engagement Through Scenario Dialogue
Trains students to lead scenario-based policy discussions.
Learning Objectives:
– Develop strategy options based on scenario narratives.
– Facilitate scenario-based dialogue among diplomatic stakeholders.
Content: Trains students to lead scenario-based policy discussions.
Activity: Facilitate stakeholder workshop using a scenario case.
Assessment: Facilitation rubric and stakeholder engagement log.
Unit 7: Scenario Writing and Visualization Techniques
Focuses on scenario documentation and communication tools.
Learning Objectives:
– Facilitate scenario-based dialogue among diplomatic stakeholders.
– Integrate scenario planning into strategic policy documents.
Content: Focuses on scenario documentation and communication tools.
Activity: Create a visual matrix and storyline infographic.
Assessment: Visualization clarity and message effectiveness score.
Unit 8: Stress-Testing Diplomatic Strategies Against Scenarios
Applies scenario logic to assess and improve strategies.
Learning Objectives:
– Integrate scenario planning into strategic policy documents.
– Communicate scenarios effectively through writing and visualization.
Content: Applies scenario logic to assess and improve strategies.
Activity: Assess mission strategy robustness across scenarios.
Assessment: Stress-test outcomes and policy revision memo.
Unit 9: Simulation: Planning a Regional Strategy Using Foresight
Engages students in a team simulation of future scenario strategy.
Learning Objectives:
– Communicate scenarios effectively through writing and visualization.
– Produce a future-ready scenario planning toolkit for missions.
Content: Engages students in a team simulation of future scenario strategy.
Activity: Lead simulation on applying scenarios to regional strategy.
Assessment: Simulation leadership performance and team review.
Unit 10: Capstone: Scenario Planning Toolkit for a Foreign Mission
Concludes with a toolkit development for field-ready scenario planning.
Learning Objectives:
– Produce a future-ready scenario planning toolkit for missions.
– Understand scenario planning and its application in diplomacy.
Content: Concludes with a toolkit development for field-ready scenario planning.
Activity: Present a toolkit including templates and policy guides.
Assessment: Capstone toolkit and oral presentation assessment.
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